Oil rises as Chinese border opening spurs fuel demand optimism; Brent hits $80.87 /bbl

Oil rises as Chinese border opening spurs fuel demand optimism; Brent hits $80.87 /bbl
January 9, 2023

Oil prices climbed on Monday as the borders reopened in China, the world's top crude importer, boosting the outlook for fuel demand growth and offsetting global recession concerns. Brent crude futures rose 90 cents, or 1.2 per cent, to $79.47 a barrel at 0520 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 90 cents, or 1.2 per cent, at $74.67.

 

Hopes for less-aggressive US interest rate rises are buoying financial markets and depressing the dollar. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for investors holding other currencies.

 

Both Brent and WTI tumbled more than 8 per cent last week, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. "Crude oil prices recovered from the previous week's losses as the economic reopening in China and less aggressive monetary tightening prospects from the Federal Reserve set a positive tone for demand recovery," said Avtar Sandu, senior manager for commodities at Phillip Futures. 

 

As part of a "new phase" in the fight against Covid-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. Domestically, some 2 billion trips are expected during the Lunar New Year season, nearly double last year's movement and recovering to 70 per cent of 2019 levels, Beijing says. Over the last week, airlines have boosted their January international seat capacity to and from China by 9.5 per cent as they ramp up flights after its border opening, according to aviation data provider Cirium. Despite the gains in oil on Monday, concerns remain that the massive flow of Chinese travellers may cause another surge in Covid infections. Those concerns are reflected in the market structure for the benchmark oil futures. Both front-month Brent and WTI contracts are in contango, when current prices are below prices for later-delivery contracts, which typically indicates bearish sentiment for the market.

 

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