While the G-7, European Union and Australia are imposing a cap (setting a fixed price) on the price of Russian crude oil, OPEC plus countries have decided not to increase production, and there is concern that the price of crude oil will rise again in the international market.

After this decision, it is seen that the price of crude oil may increase continuously in the international market. After the decision of the G-7, European Union and OPEC plus countries, the price of crude oil has reached 86 US dollars per barrel.

Also, due to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, the price of crude oil increased in the past due to the impact on the distribution system. However, now the price of crude oil has fallen.

The main reason for this is the lockdown in China, which is the largest consumer of crude oil, due to the Corona epidemic. The slowdown in industrial activities in China due to the lockdown has led to a decrease in oil consumption.

The decline in the economy of Europe and America has also affected oil consumption. Therefore, the price of oil has decreased in recent days.

Due to Russia's attack on Ukraine, the price of crude oil reached 139 USD per barrel. This price is the highest in the last 14 years. However, after this, the price of oil was continuously falling. Last time the price of oil reached 88 dollars per barrel.

However, the decision made in recent days has once again raised concerns about the price of oil. Earlier, the G-7, European Union and Australia decided to fix the price of Russian oil at USD 60 per barrel. Russia rejected this decision.

After this, 24 countries of OPEC Plus, of which Russia is a member, decided not to increase crude oil production. After that, the possibility of an increase in the price of oil has increased.

The OPEC plus countries decided last October to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day from November 9. This decision was taken to stabilize the falling price of oil. OPEC plus countries made this decision saying that if the production of crude oil is increased, the price can be reduced further.

Due to the slowdown in the global economy, the demand for oil is already declining. Because of this, there is a suspicion that the price may decrease further.

Meanwhile, the decision made in October has been taken as a result of this suspicion.

However, now that the G-7 countries and other supporting countries have decided to set a fixed price on Russian oil and the OPEC plus countries have decided not to increase production, it is seen that the situation may become serious.

Both decisions are likely to create new challenges for countries like India and China, which import a lot of oil for their needs.

Nepal's neighboring country India imports 80 percent of its oil. In this way, after processing the imported oil, India sells it to other countries including Nepal.

Last week, the G-7 and Australia issued a statement announcing that they would set a fixed price of 60 US dollars per barrel for Russian oil on Monday or soon after, and if it did not happen, they would not buy it by paying an additional amount.

These countries stated that such a step was taken to limit the financial resources of Russia, which attacked Ukraine.

Russia's main source of income is oil and gas. Without controlling it, these countries believe that Russia cannot be controlled in the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.

This price cap (fixed price) means that the oil that G-7 and the European Union buy from Russia should be less than 60 US dollars per barrel.

Also, Russia has now taken a position not to sell its oil at 60 US dollars per barrel. However, it seems uncomfortable for Russia to stick to its position. Because most of the oil shipping and insurance companies are from G-7 countries.

Russia is taking a stand not to sell its oil to countries that decide to keep such a fixed price.

According to the Senior Vice President of Norway-based 'Energy Consultancy Rested Energy', George Leon, said that due to all these decisions and stances, the situation may increase in the price of oil. He said, "Russia is clear about its decision. He has taken a stand not to sell oil to any country that sets a fixed price. In this case, the movement of oil is definitely visible. In the next few weeks, a continuous increase in the price of oil can be seen.

However, in the current economic and geo-political situation around the world, can the price of oil continue to increase? Can Russia stick to its stance of not selling oil to the countries in the G-7 and the European Union? This seems to be a matter of suspicion.

After Russia took the stand of not selling oil to countries where fixed prices are set, it is not easy for him to stick to this decision. After the ban of western countries, along with India, many other countries have increased the export of oil. India is buying crude oil from Russia at a cheap price and exporting it after processing.

Oil imported from Russia has reached 22 percent of the crude oil imported into India. 20.5 percent of oil is imported from Iraq and 16 percent from Saudi Arabia.

According to Arvind Mishra, an expert on energy and international oil markets, after Russia's attack on Ukraine, the economy of the country has weakened significantly due to sanctions imposed by Western countries. He says, "Therefore, it is Russia's obligation to sell oil even at a reduced price." Because Russia is not able to find an alternative market right away.

Russia is currently the largest oil exporter in the global market. Russia is bigger than Saudi Arabia in terms of distribution of crude oil. However, it can be seen that the sanctions of Western countries are pushing Russia towards an uncomfortable situation. Russia's oil business is under more pressure when G-Seven countries set fixed prices.

Also, after the price cap of the G-7 countries, there is a possibility that countries like India and China can get cheap oil from Russia. Experts are saying that Russia can sell oil to India at a huge discount and also provide the facility of payment in Indian rupees.

According to Anuj Gupta, Vice President of IIFL Securities, India is now in a situation like a laddu in both hands. He says, 'India is already buying oil from Russia at discounted prices. Due to the price cap, Russia can sell oil to India at a lower price.

India is also a big market for the oil exported by Russia, while China is also at the top. According to experts, India and China buy large quantities of oil from Russia.

China is continuously buying oil from Russia and storing it. China's economy is now dealing with the restrictions of Covid, so the possibility of an increase in oil consumption is also low. However, experts say that there is a possibility that China will be able to buy oil at a cheap price and store it in the future when the G-7 countries are putting a price cap on Russian oil.

Due to the decision of G-7 to impose a price cap and the decision of OPEC plus countries not to increase production, there is a possibility that the price of oil may increase. However, this possibility is very low. If decisions from both sides are implemented, this possibility will increase further.

In this case, countries like India and China are very likely to benefit from Russia. Experts have said that these countries can take advantage of the current situation by immediately importing and storing oil from Russia for the long term.